FEBRUARY 2022 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
January 2022 real estate results continued in a positive direction with home sales increases and inventory decreases; however, a closer look at the numbers reveals some items worth noting.
Record Low Inventories Are Affecting Home Sales - For the second consecutive month, inventory levels in Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center have hit historic lows. Months of supply of inventory in these three neighborhoods range from 1.1 to 1.6 MSI. The inventory levels are half of what they were a year ago. We are getting to a point where there is not enough inventory to sustain home sales growth. For example, we listed a Lincoln Park town home on Thursday and by Sunday evening we had 65 showings. Normally we would consider 25 showings during that time period to be very active. We went under contract with multiple offers, but left 64 potential buyers still looking for homes. Hopefully, the traditional start of the “Spring Market” in February and March will bring a replenishment of new inventory.
Near North Side - The Near North Side took a huge hit in 2020, but rebounded strongly in 2021 and continues to improve in 2022. As a result, the cumulative home sales and units under contract results for the North Side neighborhoods were heavily skewed by the Near North Side. Homes sales increased 24.5% in January, but that was due mainly to the 69.7% increase on the Near North Side. The other three neighborhoods had a much more modest increase. The same is true for units under contract which dropped 1.6%, but was heavily affected by the Near North Side’s increase of 43.5%. The other three neighborhoods had decreases. Buyers and sellers should should look at individual neighborhood results in order to get an accurate picture of their local market (see analysis below).
Price & Property Condition - Despite the severe shortage of inventory, there are properties that are not selling. Here are two major “must haves” for a successful sale.
1. Price - While we are seeing many multiple offers on properties and quick sales, the initial listing price has to reflect true market value. Overpricing listings will only lead to increased market time.
2. Move In Ready - Currently, buyers are shying away from homes that need repairs or renovations in favor of homes that are move in ready. Freshening up new listings is a must.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see for yourself how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends.
JANUARY HOME SALES
Year To Date - Up 24.6%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Up 24.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 69.7%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 10.3%
LAKEVIEW - Up 2.4%
NORTH CENTER - Up 14.7%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 28.0%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 19.0%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 6.0%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 150.0%
JANUARY HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Down 1.6%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 1.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 43.5%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 9.7%
LAKEVIEW - Down 7.0%
NORTH CENTER - Down 40.0%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - No Change
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 3.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 13.7%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 2.9%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
JANUARY HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Down 45.6%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 45.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 41.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 53.4%
LAKEVIEW - Down 47.7%
NORTH CENTER - Down 54.4%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 48.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 43.0%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 47.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 36.9%
JANUARY MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 64.4% to 2.1 MSI
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 64.4 to 2.1 MSI
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 63.4% to 1.9 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 62.0% to 1.9 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 133.3% to 2.8 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 68.8% to 5.3 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 64.7% to 4.2 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 55.0% to 1.6 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 61.0% to 1.6 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 59.3% to 1.1 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
JANUARY MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 7.8%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Up 7.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 8.7%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 21.2%
LAKEVIEW - Down 3.3%
NORTH CENTER - Up 1.9%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 1.0%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 6.7%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 13.7%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 2.9%
JANUARY DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 3.7% to 104 Days
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 3.7% to 104 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 21.8% to 173 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 15.7% to 86 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 10.2% to 88 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 21.6% to 69 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 4.3% to 96 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 15.3% to 105 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 10.1% to 124 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 103% to 258 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.