MAY 2023 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
April 2023 was the 14th consecutive month of year over year home sales declines in Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center.
Historically low inventory levels, rising interest rates, rising taxes, crime, and changing economic conditions have all contributed to a picture of a down market in the City of Chicago.
We are seeing signs of a very strong market beneath the surface. Many buyers and sellers appear to be “eagerly cautious.” That is, eager to get into the market, but cautious as to how far that they will go.
Here are three factors contributing to “eagerly cautious” buyers and sellers
1 - Buyer Demand - While there are no statistics that document the number of buyers in the current market, open house attendance, showing requests and number of multiple offers indicate that there are a lot of prospective buyers out there. While there is a tremendous amount of buyer activity on the existing inventory, buyers seem reluctant to over pay, even when participating in multiple offer situations.
2 - Sellers Supply - Despite the current complexities, we are seeing a growing interest of sellers that want to explore the market. Many, however, do not want to jump in with both feet and are testing the market with private and off market listings until they can get a better feel for where the economy is going. Most sellers will be buying a new home and will be dealing with higher interest rates and changing economic conditions once they sell their current homes. Many are cautious, as they are aware of the challenges on both the buy and sell side.
3 - PRICES - This is probably the most interesting part of the current market. Traditionally, low inventory markets can inflate home prices to dangerous levels for home buyers. Despite many multiple offers and low market times, Chicago home prices have remained fairly stable in comparison to other parts of the country. Last month home prices rose only 0.3% over last year and are down 2.7% year to date. One exception was Lincoln Park which posted 22.5% increase in April vs last year. While it is inevitable that prices will rise as long as inventory levels are low, sellers should beware of being too aggressive. The past few months have shown that many buyers will compete in multiple offers, but will not get involved in over priced bidding wars. Sellers should concentrate on pricing homes with accurate data from their individual neighborhoods and not be influenced by what is going on in other areas of the country or even the Chicago suburbs. If a North Side home is not getting offers in this market, it is overpriced PERIOD.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see for yourself how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends. Chicago is a big complicated city and so is the real estate market. There is no “one size fits all.” Buyers and sellers should look at market statistics for their individual neighborhood, property type and price point to get accurate data.
APRIL HOME SALES
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 36.2%
Month 2023 vs 2019 - Down 19.7%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Dow42.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 36.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 40.9%
LAKEVIEW - Down 48.4%
NORTH CENTER - Down 45.8%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 43.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 28.1%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 46.4%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 40.6%
APRIL HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Down 35.5%
Month 2023 vs 2019 - Down 20.5%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 35.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 22.9%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 46.2%
LAKEVIEW - Down 42.5%
NORTH CENTER - Down 34.2%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 33.6%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 34.4%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 44.4%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 51.6%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
APRIL HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Down 23.1%
Month 2023 vs 2019 - Down 45.8%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 26.7%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 20.4%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 30.3%
LAKEVIEW - Down 43.6%
NORTH CENTER - Down 26.1%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 39.5%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 16.2%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 10.0
Over $2,000,000 - Up 0.3%
APRIL MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Up .4% at 2.8 MSI
Month 2023 vs 2019 - Down 47.2% to 2.8 MSI
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 3.0% at 2.8 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 33.3% to 1.6 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 20.0% to 3.0 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 38.5 to 5.4 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Up 67.2% to 10.7 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 8.0% to 5.4 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Up 10.0% at 2.2 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 15.8% to 1.6 MSI
NORTH CENTER - No Change at 2.0 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
APRIL MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Down 2.7%
Month 2023 vs 2019- Up 17.9%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 0.3%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 2.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 22.3%
LAKEVIEW - Down 9.1%
NORTH CENTER - Down 2.6%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Up 0.6%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 0.6%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 4.3%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 2.7%
APRIL DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Up 5.9% to 75 Days
Year To Date 2023 vs 2019- Down 13.7% to 75 Days
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 31.5% to 75 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 2.8% to 137 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 7.1% to 91 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 1.3% to 75 days
NORTH CENTER - Up 60.0% to 64 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 0.3% to 60 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 Up 41.9% to 70 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 84.5% to 140 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 0.3% to 94 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, we would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.