AUGUST 2023 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
While July 2023 was the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year home sales declines in Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center, we are beginning to see some signs of an improving market.
1 - UNITS UNDER CONTRACT - Homes that went under contract in the past 16 months, have experienced the same double-digit decreases as home sales; however, July was the first month that we saw an increase. The 6.6% increase over last year, was fueled by Near North which had a 20.7% increase and Lincoln Park which had a 1.7% increase. (Lakeview & North Center had small decreases). The July increases are significant in that they will probably turn into August home sales increases and could be the first sign of a possible turnaround.
2 - HOME PRICES - July represented the fourth consecutive month of median home price increases. Traditionally, low inventory markets can inflate home prices to dangerous levels for home buyers. Despite many multiple offers and low market times, Chicago home prices have remained fairly stable in comparison to the suburbs and other parts of the country. July home prices rose 5.1% over last year and prices are now 0.3% ahead of Year To Date 2022 median prices.
3 - MSI - Months Of Supply Of Inventory is a calculation that compares home sales to inventory levels. Traditionally, anything below 6.0 MSI is considered a sellers market and anything above is considered a buyers market. 2023 MSI levels have dropped as low as 1.2 MSI in the past months reflecting the critical shortage of homes for sale. MSI levels are slowly starting to rise and have moved from 2.1 in Lakeview to 6.1 on the Near North Side. This does not mean that the inventory shortage is over, but it is moving in a positive direction.
It is too early to announce a North Side real estate turnaround; however, the three comparatives above are a positive sign. There is a strong supply of buyers and while there are no statistics to give us true numbers, open house attendance and low market times indicate that buyers are getting more comfortable with higher interest rates.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends. Chicago is a big complicated city and so is the real estate market. There is no “one size fits all.” Buyers and sellers should look at market statistics for their individual neighborhood, property type and price point to get accurate data.
JULY HOME SALES
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 31.7%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 19.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 16.9%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 34.1%
LAKEVIEW - Down 13.6%
NORTH CENTER - Down 12.9
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 29.6%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 35.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 28.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 37.3%
JULY HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Down 25.9%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 6.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 20.7%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 1.7%
LAKEVIEW - Down 2.5%
NORTH CENTER - Down 6.1%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 24.4%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 29.9%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 23.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 16.6%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
JULY HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Down 21.9%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 26.0%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 18.8%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 33.0%
LAKEVIEW - Down 38.0%
NORTH CENTER - Down 36.9%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 40.7%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 11.9%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 4.2%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 6.5%
JULY MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Up 7.1% at 3.0 MSI
Month 2023 vs 2022 - No Change at 3.4 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 20.8% to 1.9 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 24.0% to 3.1 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 41.0 to 5.5 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Up 47.1% to 10.3 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 5.2% to 6.1 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Up 3.8% to 2.7 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 8.7% to 2.1%
NORTH CENTER - Down 15.4% to 2.2 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
JULY MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Up 0.3%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 5.1%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 2.4%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 6.8%
LAKEVIEW - Up 6.9%
NORTH CENTER - Up 7.2%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 0.7%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 0.1%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 1.2%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 1.2%
JULY DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Up 4.4% to 71 Days
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 10.6% to 52 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - No Change at 92 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 4.9% to 39 days
LAKEVIEW - Up 11.1% to 30 days
NORTH CENTER - Up 70.4% to 46 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 4.4% to 64 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 Up 9.8% to 68 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 20.0% to 108 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 26.7% to 128 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, we would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.