APRIL 2022 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
Dramatically decreasing inventory levels for the past nine consecutive months have finally taken their toll on North Side home sales. Historically low March inventory levels were responsible for the first decreases in homes sales in over 14 months. Unlike other downturns that we have experienced in the past, there are plenty of buyers out there, but not nearly enough homes for sale to meet the demand.
Home Sales - March 2022 home sales dropped 4.9% against last year. The number is somewhat deceiving as the Near North side reported a 20.6 increase. Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center decreased 13.9%, 14.3% and 24.7% respectively.
Units Under Contract - March 2022 dropped 14.7% against 2021 for the third consecutive month despite a 9.4% increase on the Near North Side. Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center dropped 30.9%, 14.5% and 34.8% respectively. This will no doubt have a negative impact on April closed home sales.
Inventory Levels & MSI - The North Side continued it’s dramatic inventory slide with a 38.9% decrease in the number of homes for sale in March 2022 vs 2021. Months Of Supply Of Inventory dropped 53.8% in March 2022 vs 2021. Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center dropped to 1.8MSI, 1.8MSI and 1.4MSI respectively. Even with an active buyer pool, it would be difficult to exceed last years sales with inventory levels this low.
What’s Ahead - COVID, inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain issues, rising crime and city financial issues are just some of the many national and local variables that are having an impact on neighborhood real estate markets. As a result, it is very difficult to predict where the market is headed. Some believe that there will be a quick recovery, while others believe that we are headed for recession. Traditionally, April launces the “spring real estate season”, bringing out new buyers and sellers. We know that the buyers are there, but it remains to be seen if sellers will be listing their homes this spring and summer in numbers large enough to satisfy demand.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see for yourself how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends. Chicago is a big complicated city and so is the real estate market. There is no “one size fits all.” Buyers and sellers should look at market statistics for their individual neighborhood, property type and price point to get accurate data.
MARCH HOME SALES
Year To Date - Up 10.3%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 4.9%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 20.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 13.9%
LAKEVIEW - Down 14.3%
NORTH CENTER - Down 24.7%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 7.2%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 3.5%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 5.4%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 7.0%
MARCH HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Down 6.5%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 14.7%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 9.4%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 30.9%
LAKEVIEW - Down 14.5%
NORTH CENTER - Down 34.8%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 8.5%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 15.1%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 29.2%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 28.3%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
MARCH HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Down 41.1%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 38.9%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 38.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 45.8%
LAKEVIEW - Down 36.7%
NORTH CENTER - Down 40.6%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 42.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 36.5%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 36.8%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 34.1%
MARCH MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 58.9% to 2.3 MSI
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 53.8 to 2.4 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 55.1% to 2.2 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 48.8% to 2.2 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 52.2% to 3.2 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 57.1% to 6.0 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 59.1% to 4.7 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 52.6% to 1.8 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 43.8% to 1.8 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 36.4% to 1.4 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
MARCH MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 7.0%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 6.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 10.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 2.1%
LAKEVIEW - Down 1.2%
NORTH CENTER - Up 21.0%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 6.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 1.6%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 2.8%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 2.5%
MARCH DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 13.9% to 99 Days
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 18.5% to 88 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 0.7% to 140 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 8.5% to 97 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 14.9% to 74 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 59.6% to 40 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 18.8% to 78 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 18.0% to 90 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 14.2% to 115 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up Down 37.2% to 118 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.