MAY 2022 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
Historically low inventory levels in April were responsible for a drop in Home Sales and Units Under Contract for the second consecutive month. Unlike other downturns that we have experienced in the past, there are plenty of buyers out there, but not nearly enough homes for sale to meet the demand.
April 2022 Home Sales dropped 4.9% against 2021, while homes that went under contract in April dropped 16% compared to last year. This will, in all probability, lead to a third consecutive month of decreases in May.
Inventory Levels & MSI - The North Side continued it’s dramatic inventory slide with a 37% decrease in the number of homes for sale in April 2022 vs 2021. Months Of Supply Of Inventory dropped 44.7% in April 2022 vs 2021. Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center dropped to 1.9MSI, 1.7MSI and 1.8MSI respectively. Even with this very active buyer pool, it would be difficult to exceed last years sales with inventory levels this low.
Median Prices & Market Time are being positively impacted by low inventory levels and high buyer demand. Home prices rose 5.4% in April 2022 compared to 2021. Market Times have dropped 34% during that same time period.
What’s Ahead - It is very difficult to predict where the market is headed due to the many national and local variables that are having an impact on neighborhood real estate markets. COVID, inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain issues, rising crime and city financial issues are just some of the unresolved problems that the city faces. Some believe that there will be a quick recovery, while others believe that we are headed for recession. We did not see the bump in inventory levels that March and April traditionally bring. May will be a key month, as families looking to change school districts, historically start looking for new homes and listing their existing homes for sale in May & June.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see for yourself how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends. Chicago is a big complicated city and so is the real estate market. There is no “one size fits all.” Buyers and sellers should look at market statistics for their individual neighborhood, property type and price point to get accurate data.
APRIL HOME SALES
Year To Date - Up 16.6%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 5.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 16.5%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 9.4%
LAKEVIEW - Down 9.1%
NORTH CENTER - Down 32.8%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 13.4%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 3.5%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - No Change
Over $2,000,000 - Up 42.9%
APRIL HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Down 7.8%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 16.0%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 5.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 20.5%
LAKEVIEW - Down 17.3%
NORTH CENTER - Down 36.4%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 17.6%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 7.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 26.7%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 24.2%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
APRIL HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Down 39.5%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 37.0%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 34.9%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 42.0%
LAKEVIEW - Down 41.5%
NORTH CENTER - Down 29.5%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 42.2%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 35.1%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 27.7%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 30.1%
APRIL MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 55.6% to 2.4 MSI
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 44.7% to 2.6 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 45.2% to 2.3 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 43.9% to 2.3 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 37.7% to 3.8 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 56.2% to 6.0 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 51.5% to 4.9 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 44.1% to 1.9 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 43.3% to 1.7 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 14.3% to 1.8 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
APRIL MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 5.9%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Up 5.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - No Change
LINCOLN PARK - Up 4.2%
LAKEVIEW - Up 12.4%
NORTH CENTER - Up 5.6%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 3.8%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - No Change
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 0.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 1.9%
APRIL DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 17.4% to 85 Days
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 34.1 to 58 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 30.8% to 99 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 38.8% to 52 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 39.2% to 48 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 28.9% to 32 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 29.4% to 60 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 32.4% to 50 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 39.3% to 77 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up Down 33.7% to 94 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.