AUGUST 2022 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
2022 Home Sales have dropped for the past five consecutive months, when compared to 2021 in Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center. July 2022 was no exception, as you can see by the analysis below.
As we have discussed previously, North Side real estate has been hit hard by a number of variables from COVID to rising interest rates, gas prices and crime to a dropping stock market.
In a recent conversation with Baird & Warner managing broker David Bailey, we discussed how 2021 was an extraordinary year due to the rebound from COVID. The record setting increases in 2021 have magnified the decreases in 2022. David suggested that it might be interesting to compare 2022 numbers to 2019 which was the last “normal” year before COVID.
The results were interesting and put our current market in a different perspective.
HOME SALES - 2022 YTD home sales were up 33.9% over 2019.
HOME PRICES - 2022 YTD median prices were up 9.8% over 2019
MARKET TIME - 2022 YTD average market time dropped 25.2% from 2019
INVENTORY & MSI - 2022 YTD inventory levels are down 25% from 2019 and MSI levels are down 48% from 2019 ( from 5.2MSI in 2019 to 2.7MSI in 2022). While the industry faces a number of challenges, inventory levels continue to be one of the major issues. It should be noted, that while inventory levels are dropping compared to 2021, they are slowly rising when comparing month over month in 2022.
The purpose of this exercise is not to try to “put lipstick on a pig” but rather to compare what is happening in this unpredictable market to a more stable time. A significant number of homes are being sold, prices are up and market times are down. As inventories rise we should see some impressive results.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see for yourself how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends. Chicago is a big complicated city and so is the real estate market. There is no “one size fits all.” Buyers and sellers should look at market statistics for their individual neighborhood, property type and price point to get accurate data.
JULY HOME SALES
Year To Date - Down 6.3%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 30.1%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 28.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 24.2%
LAKEVIEW - Down 37.5%
NORTH CENTER - Down 25.0%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 36.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 18.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 37.8%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 6.0%
JULY HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Down 12.5%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 31.9%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 38.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 31.1%
LAKEVIEW - Down 24.6%
NORTH CENTER - Down 29.3%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 28.5%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 34.8%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 35.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 48.3%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
JULY HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Down 33.4%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 26.7%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 18.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 38.9%
LAKEVIEW - Down 38.2%
NORTH CENTER - Down 15.5%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 32.6%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 20.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 26.2%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 16.0%
JULY MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 44.9% to 2.7 MSI
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 23.3% to 3.3 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 26.3% to 2.8 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 20.5% to 3.1 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 26.2% to 4.5 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 30.4% to 8.0 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 26.0% to 5.7 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 34.2% to 2.5 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 29.0% to 2.2 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Up 4.0% at 2.6 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
JULY MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 5.7%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 5.0%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 1.5%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 2.4%
LAKEVIEW - Up 5.5%
NORTH CENTER - Up 14.8%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 2.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 0.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 7.7%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 4.4%
JULY DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 26.1% to 68 Days
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 32.9% to 47 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 31.8% to 90 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 46.2% to 42 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 30.8% to 27 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 9.7% to 28 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 41.0% to 40 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 40.7% to 42 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 27.1% to 52 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up Down 37.7% to 107 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.