SEPTEMBER 2022 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
As expected, 2022 August Home Sales dropped, when compared to 2021 in Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center. This was the sixth consecutive month of decreases. As noted last month, 2021 was an extraordinary rebound year from COVID. The record setting increases in 2021 have magnified the decreases in 2022 as you can see by the analysis below.
In order to provide a better frame of reference we also compared 2022 YTD numbers to 2019 which was the last “normal” year before COVID.
The results put our current numbers in a very different light.
HOME SALES - 2022 YTD home sales were up 28.1% over 2019
HOME PRICES - 2022 YTD median prices were up 11.0% over 2019
MARKET TIME - 2022 YTD average market time dropped 25.8% from 2019
INVENTORY & MSI - 2022 YTD inventory levels are down 25.4% from 2019 and MSI levels are down 47.2% from 2019 ( from 5.3MSI in 2019 to 2.8MSI in 2022). While the industry faces a number of challenges, inventory levels continue to be one of the major issues. It should be noted that while inventory levels are dropping compared to 2021, they are slowly rising when comparing month over month in 2022.
As we have discussed previously, North Side real estate has been hit hard by a number of variables from COVID to rising interest rates, gas prices and crime to a dropping stock market. It is still too early to see if the economy is going to make a “soft landing” or go into recession.
Despite this uncertainty, a significant number of homes are being sold, prices are up and market times are down. As inventories rise we should see some impressive results. It appears as though we are seeing more new listings in our searches since Labor Day and that many people are ready to enter the market once they see some stability.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see for yourself how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends. Chicago is a big complicated city and so is the real estate market. There is no “one size fits all.” Buyers and sellers should look at market statistics for their individual neighborhood, property type and price point to get accurate data.
AUGUST HOME SALES
Year To Date - Down 8.2%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 24.5%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 32.1%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 17.7%
LAKEVIEW - Down 18.1%
NORTH CENTER - Down 26.8%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 24.0%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 25.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 23.2%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 26.4%
AUGUST HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Down 13.7%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 22.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 15.9%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 36.3%
LAKEVIEW - Down 16.9%
NORTH CENTER - Down 26.2%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 18.8%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 6.8%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 41.8%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 24.2%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
AUGUST HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Down 32.4%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 27.5%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 19.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 35.6%
LAKEVIEW - Down 41.7%
NORTH CENTER - Down 19.7%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 33.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 24.4%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 25.0%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 12.0%
AUGUST MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 41.7% to 2.8 MSI
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 22.5% to 3.1 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 25.7% to 2.6 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 25.6% to 2.9 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 20.4% to 4.3 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 21.2% to 7.8 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 23.9% to 5.4 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 28.1% to 2.3 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 35.5% to 2.0 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 3.8% to 2.5 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
AUGUST MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 5.0%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 1.5%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 10.0%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 21.5%
LAKEVIEW - Down 21.0%
NORTH CENTER - Up 4.6%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 2.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 6.0%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 5.7%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 12.0%
AUGUST DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 26.6% to 66 Days
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 25.7% to 52 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 33.3% to 90 days
LINCOLN PARK - No Change at 45 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 23.1% to 40 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 36.7 to 31 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 29.4% to 48 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 14.1% to 55 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 30.2% to 67 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up Down 1.1% to 87 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.