MARCH 2021 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
“Look For” & “Look Out For” In March Real Estate
February real estate numbers were very active. Home Sales and Homes Under Contract had dramatic increases. So did Inventory levels and Months Of Supply Of Inventory, while median home prices remained flat. There is obviously a lot going on; however, a closer look is needed to understand the current trends. Here are some important “look for” and “look out for” in March.
LOOK FOR:
1 - Home Sales Increases - As the COVID vaccine continues to roll out, more people are getting to get back into the market on both the buy and sell side. If inventory levels can keep up with demand we should see some dramatic home sales increases over last year, especially since we are coming up against the beginning of the last year’s pandemic numbers.
2 - Low Inventory Levels - While inventory levels rose in 14.9 % in February, most of the increase is due to a 39.2% increase on the Near North Side. While Lakeview had an inventory increase, Lincoln Park and North Center showed decreases and the Month Of Supply of inventory in these 3 neighborhoods are very low.
3 - Family Friendly Homes such as duplex downs and townhomes are a hot ticket. They are becoming a significant driving force in the current market. Growing families and record low interest rates are creating a home buying urgency.. This is boosting sales in mid to higher priced homes.
LOOK OUT FOR:
1 - Over Paying - With Home Sales outpacing Inventories in 3 of the 4 neighborhoods multiple offers are becoming more prevalent. These bidding wars can lead to inflated prices. Buyers should note that Median Prices dropped 10.1% in February and have not risen as dramatically as Home Sales. Now is not the time to over pay.
2 -Real Estate Bubbles - The North Side real estate market looks healthy and promising for the near future. As this is the first global pandemic in recent history, no one really knows how the real estate markets will be affected in the long term. There are still many variables that can have both positive and negative effects. In all probability we are going to see spikes (both up and down) in various business sectors and it is important that buyers and sellers not get trapped in any short term bubbles that may form.
3 - Near North Side - As noted before, The Loop, Streeterville, Gold Coast and River North have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic, social unrest and crime. We saw a welcomed increase in Home Sales and Units Under Contract in February; however, inventory levels are Still growing at alarming rates. These wonderful Chicago neighborhoods will rebound; however, it may take longer than other neighborhoods. Whether businesses will bring workers back into offices or let them continue to work from home will be one of a number of factors that will have an impact.
Please see the analysis below for your neighborhood and how it is performing.
FEBRUARY HOME SALES
Year To Date - Up 10.2%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 20.0%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 4.0%
LINCOLN PARK Up 35.7%
LAKEVIEW - Up 22.4%
NORTH CENTER - Up 50.0%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 35.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 25.2%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 28.3%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 33.3%
FEBRUARY HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Up 28.7%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 33.3%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 22.5%
LINCOLN PARK Up 39.6%
LAKEVIEW - Up 52.87%
NORTH CENTER - Up 4.5%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 22.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 53.9%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 35.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 90.0%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
FEBRUARY HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Up 27.9%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 19.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 39.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 2.6%
LAKEVIEW - Up 8.9%
NORTH CENTER - Down 20.2%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 61.8%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 6.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 9.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 7.9%
FEBRUARY MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Up 25.0% to 5.5MSI
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 14.9% to 5.4 MSI
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 54.5% to 5.1 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 9.6 to 4.7 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 5.4 to 7.0 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Up 7.1% to 15.0 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 62.9% to 11.4 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 10.9% to 4.1 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 2.7% to 3.6 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 21.2% to 2.6 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
FEBRUARY MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 0.3%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 10.1%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 7.8%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 7.3%
LAKEVIEW - Down 3.7%
NORTH CENTER - Down 18.2%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 3.2%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 0.8%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 6.6%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 12.3%
FEBRUARY DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 10.9 % to 122 Days
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 8.8% to 134 days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 15.1% to 168 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 7.7 to 120 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 20.3% to 94 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 22.1% to 152 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 9.1% to 131 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 29.7% to 121 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 47.0% to 209 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 74.0% to 209 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value that use only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analyses from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.