APRIL 2021 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
Caution - The Market is Hot - Don’t Get Burned
March real estate numbers were explosive. Home Sales in most areas had double digit increases and Homes Under Contract rose in triple digits. Home sales are rising, but before you run out and put a for sale sign on the lawn, there are a number of very important factors that need to be considered when looking at the analysis below.
1 - Home Sales - March 2021 Home Sales and Homes Under Contract below, are being compared to March 2020. This was the first month of the COVID lockdown last year. Virtually everything was shut down including open houses and many home showings. As a result, sales plunged. While 2021 numbers are quite impressive, Last year’s lockdown should be taken into consideration when looking at the percent of increase below.
2 - Near North Side - The Loop, Streeterville, Gold Coast and River North have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic, social unrest and crime. We saw a welcomed increase in Home Sales and Units Under Contract in February & March; however, inventory levels are still growing at alarming rates. These increases are skewing the cumulative inventory numbers of the other three neighborhoods
The Near North Side neighborhoods will rebound; however, it may take longer than other neighborhoods to the North.
3 - Inventory Levels - While inventory levels rose in 15.2 % in March, most of the increase is due to a 43.2% increase on the Near North Side (per above). Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center showed decreases and the Month Of Supply of inventory in these 3 neighborhoods are very low.
4 - Home Prices - With Home Sales outpacing Inventories in 3 of the 4 neighborhoods multiple offers are becoming more prevalent. Buyers should note that Median Prices dropped in February and were flat in March. Multiple offers can lead to biding wars and inflated prices; however, now is not the time to over pay.
5 -Real Estate Bubbles - The North Side real estate market looks healthy and promising for the near future. As this is the first global pandemic in recent history, no one really knows how the real estate markets will be affected in the long term. There are still many variables that can have both positive and negative effects. In all probability we are going to see spikes (both up and down) in various business sectors and it is important that buyers and sellers not get trapped in any short term bubbles that may form.
Please see the analysis below for your neighborhood and how it is performing.
MARCH HOME SALES
Year To Date - Up 24.7%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 39.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 12.3%
LINCOLN PARK Up 70.9%
LAKEVIEW - Up 64.5%
NORTH CENTER - Up 9.1%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 34.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 56.8%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - 10.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 60.0%
MARCH HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Up 61.8%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 130.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 113.8%
LINCOLN PARK Up 160.2%
LAKEVIEW - Up 120.8%
NORTH CENTER - Up 148.5%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 101.7%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 138.6%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 202.0%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 457.0%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
MARCH HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Up 23.9%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 15.2%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 43.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 12.6%
LAKEVIEW - Down 2.0%
NORTH CENTER - Down 35.8%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 332.5%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 10.1%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 14.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 14.6%
MARCH MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Up 14.9% to 5.4MSI
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 3.9% to 4.9 MSI
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 16.2% to 4.3 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 29.0 to 3.9 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 26.3 to 5.9 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 10.0% to 13.5 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 48.6% to 11.0 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 29.4% to 3.6 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 22.5% to 3.1 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 48.6% to 1.9 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
MARCH MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 21.1%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - No Change
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 2.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 13.7%
LAKEVIEW - Down 15.8%
NORTH CENTER - Up 1.6%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 6.4%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 1.5 %
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 10.5%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 14.9%
MARCH DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 9.5 % to 114 Days
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 7.7% to 107 days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 3.4% to 141 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 14.6 to 105 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 21.8% to 86 days
NORTH CENTER - Up 14.8% to 95 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 2.9% to 98 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 17.9% to 101 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 13.5% to 134 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 14.8% to 271 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value that use only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analyses from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.