JUNE 2021 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
Double and triple digit Home Sales and Units Under Contract increases continued in May. We are still comparing our very active 2021 market to the pandemic market of 2020. As a result, the numbers and percent of increases are so inflated that it is difficult to judge just exactly how well we are actually doing (and we are doing well).
Here are four take aways from the June market analysis:
1 - Near North Side - The Loop, Streeterville, Gold Coast and River North which have been hit hard by the pandemic, social unrest and crime, are beginning to rebound. While inventory levels are still higher than the other neighborhoods, home sales and units under contract are increasing dramatically. As the city reopens we should see continued growth in these neighborhoods.
2 - Months Of Supply Of Inventory - MSI is a calculation involving home sales and inventory levels. It is an indication of whether we are in a buyer’s or seller’s market. Traditionally, anything under 6.0 MSI is considered a seller’s market. Anything over 7.0 MSI is a buyer’s market and anything between 6.0 & 7.0 MSI is considered a neutral market. Currently with the exception of Near North which is at 8.7 MSI, the other three neighborhoods range from 1.8MSI to 3.2MSI indicating the continuation of a strong sellers market. When looking at MSI by pricepoint, homes priced over 2 million dollars are at 11.6 MSI, but homes priced under are all under 5.4 MSI. Sales increases and lack of inventory continue to favor sellers.
3 - Home Prices - Home Sales continue to outpace Inventories and multiple offers are still common. Median home price increases; however, remain modest. Sellers should be realistic about pricing their homes, as buyers are not responding to over pricing.
4 -Interest Rates - While interest rates have risen from their historic lows of a few months ago, current rates are still very favorable. Conforming loans (under $548,250) are still under 3% with 30 year fixed at 2.875% and 15 year fixed at 2.250%. Jumbo rates range from 3% for a 30 year fixed to 2.125% for a 10 year arm. These low rates increase buying power in a market that is favoring sellers.
Please see the analysis below for your neighborhood and how it is performing.
MAY HOME SALES
Year To Date - Up 63.7%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 155.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 194.8%
LINCOLN PARK Up 122.2%
LAKEVIEW - Up 144.2%
NORTH CENTER - Up 169.6%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 143.2%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 165.1%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 187.5%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 250.0%
MAY HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Up 84.8%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 58.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 91.9%
LINCOLN PARK Up 62.7%
LAKEVIEW - Up 45.6%
NORTH CENTER - Up 12.0%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 61.6%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 32.7%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 122.4%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 158.3%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
MAY HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Up 22.3%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 15.5%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 31.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 8.7%
LAKEVIEW - Up 13.2%
NORTH CENTER - Down 21.2%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 45.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 0.5%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 13.7%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 0.9%
MAY MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - No Change at 4.9MSI
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 24.1% to 4.1 MSI
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 5.1% to 3.7 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 33.3% to 3.8 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 40.7% to 5.4 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 31.3% to 11.6 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 1.2% to 8.7 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 42.9% to 3.2 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 28.2% to 2.8 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 48.6% to 1.8 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
MAY MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 3.5%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 7.7%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 0.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 28.3%
LAKEVIEW - Down 8.8%
NORTH CENTER - Down 8.9%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 7.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 5.6%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 4.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 17.6%
MAY DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 9.0 %
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 9.0%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 12.0% to 149 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 8.6% to 96 days
LAKEVIEW - Up 32.8% to 81 days
NORTH CENTER - Up 5.7% to 56 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 0.1% to 81 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 17.9% to 92 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 13.6% to 121 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 2.5% to 123 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.