JULY 2021 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
The trend of rising home sales and units under contract, along with decreasing inventories continued in June on Chicago’s North Side. We are still comparing the current 2021 market to the pandemic market of 2020. While North Side real estate is very healthy, there is a lot of commentary on how explosive the market actually is. In some cases national pricing statistics are being used in an effort to paint a picure that may not relate to the Chicago market. I recently saw an article proclaiming that home prices were up for June 15% over last year. These were numbers that included the New York & LA markets and did not come close to the actual 5.4% median price increase on Chicago’s North Side (see analysis below). Now more than ever, it is important to analyze the market by neighborhood, property type and price point for the most accurate information. Making decisions based on inaccurate or inflated statistics can mean trouble for both buyers and sellers.
Here are four current trends that are having an affect on the market:
1 - Months Of Supply Of Inventory - MSI is a calculation involving home sales and inventory levels. It is an indication of whether we are in a buyer’s or seller’s market. Traditionally, anything under 6.0 MSI is considered a seller’s market. Anything over 7.0 MSI is a buyer’s market and anything between 6.0 & 7.0 MSI is considered a neutral market. In June of 2021 MSI dropped 31.7% against June 2020. Lincoln Park was at 3.4 MSI, Lakeview 2.9 MSI and North Center 2.0 MSI. With the exception of the Near North Side (7.9 MSI) we are in a strong sellers market.
2 - Home Prices - Despite rising sales and falling inventories, median prices are not rising as quickly as might be expected. Year to date median prices are up 3.9% over last year, and as mentioned above prices rose 5.4% in June. While these are healthy increases, they are also a warning to sellers not to overprice homes. Aggressive pricing is still possible, but it must fit within actual market values and search engine compatibility. I can’t emphasize enough how important pricing is in the current market.
3 - Near North Side - The Loop, Streeterville, Gold Coast and River North which have been hit hard by the pandemic, social unrest and crime, are rebounding . While inventory levels are still higher than the other neighborhoods, home sales and units under contract are increasing dramatically. Some of these increases are due to bagain hunters taking advantage of lower prices; however, as the city reopens we should see continued growth in these neighborhoods.
4 -Luxury Homes - The luxury market is also starting to come back from the COVID doldrums. Luxury home sales and units under contract are showing dramatic increases and inventories are dropping. MSI for homes priced from $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 has dropped to 5.3. Homes priced over $2,000,000 reported an MSI of 11.5, but that is down 35.4% from last year.
Please see the analysis below for your neighborhood and how it is performing.
JUNE HOME SALES
Year To Date - Up 73.4%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 112.1%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 113.7%
LINCOLN PARK Up 137.5%
LAKEVIEW - Up 114.3%
NORTH CENTER - Up 58.5%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 99.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 105.0%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 200.0%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 230.0%
JUNE HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Up 71.2%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 19.9%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 52.5%
LINCOLN PARK Up 3.2%
LAKEVIEW - Up 10.2%
NORTH CENTER - Down 10.3%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 29.4%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 6.6%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 42.5%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 100.3%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
JUNE HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Up 19.2%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 1.7%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 10.8%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 13.3%
LAKEVIEW - Up 3.8%
NORTH CENTER - Down 26.2%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 22.7%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 11.6%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 19.4%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 7.3%
JUNE MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 3.9% to 4.9MSI
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 31.7% to 4.1 MSI
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 20.0% to 3.6 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 39.3% to 3.7 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 48.0% to 5.3 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 35.4% to 11.5 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 18.6% to 7.9 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 44.3% to 3.4 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 32.6% to 2.9 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 50.0% to 2.0 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
JUNE MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 3.9%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 5.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 3.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 4.3%
LAKEVIEW - Up 1.7%
NORTH CENTER - Up 16.7%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 2.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 8.7%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 1.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 6.5%
JUNE DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 12.0 %
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 19.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 0.7% to 135 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 35.2% to 59 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 35.4% to 61 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 34.6% to 51 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 48.3% to 40 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 24.3% to 78 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 38.5% to 80 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 10.2% to 184 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.