NOVEMBER 2021 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
Overview - November begins with a slower, but healthy estate market on the North Side. Some indicators, however, are going in different directions than past rebounding markets.
Here are 4 comparatives that illustrate some inconsistencies of the current market.
Home Sales / Homes Under Contract - October 2021 home sales dropped 7.6% vs 2020; however, homes that went under contract in October 2021 increased 21.7% over the previous year. It is unusual for these two indicators to be going in different directions in the same month.
Inventory / Median Price - Inventory levels and Months Of Supply Of Inventory continued to drop to almost record lows. October 2021 inventory levels dropped 36.5% and MSI dropped 56.4% to 3.4 MSI vs 2020. Traditionally low inventory levels result in higher prices; however, Median Prices dropped 2.3% in October 2021 vs 2020. This is unusual for a rebounding market.
Market Times - Low inventory levels traditionally lead to lower market times, but in October 2021 Days On The Market rose 9.3% to 82 days. This varied by neighborhood and was heavily impacted by the 36.4% increase in market time on the Near North Side.
Near North Side Turnaround - For the past two years, the real estate market on the Near North Side has been devestated by the COVID pandemic, social unrest and increasing crime rates. The Near North Side market indicators have had a negative affect of the Norths Side’s cumulative real estate trends over the past two years. This prime area including the Gold Coast, Streeterville and River North is now experiencing a dramatic turn around. October sales and homes under contract reported increases while inventory levels dropped dramatically. MSI dropped to 6.1 in October 2021 from 13.9 in 2020. While cumulative median prices dropped on the North Side, the Near North Side posted a 1.6% increase in prices for October.
The total impact of COVID on the real estate market will not be known for some time, but it is clear that the pandemic is a major factor in market inconsistencies. While looking at the big picture is very important, buyers and sellers should focus on their individual neighborhood, property type and price point.
Please see the analysis below for your neighborhood and see for yourself how it is performing.
OCTOBER HOME SALES
Year To Date - Up 45.9%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 7.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 11.4%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 8.5%
LAKEVIEW - Down 24.1%
NORTH CENTER - Down 45.7%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 1.7%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 21.6%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 8.0%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 4.3%
OCTOBER HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Up 47.1%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 21.7%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 51.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 20.7%
LAKEVIEW - Up 4.0%
NORTH CENTER - Down 3.5%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 21.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 24.7%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 5.2%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 100.0%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
OCTOBER HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Down 3.7%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 36.5%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 34.1%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 39.8%
LAKEVIEW - Down 36.2%
NORTH CENTER - Down 47.4%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 38.2%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 37.2%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 34.2%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 27.7%
OCTOBER MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 26.2% to 4.5 MSI
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 56.4% to 3.4 MSI
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 57.1% to 3.0 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 54.9% to 3.2 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 57.5% to 4.5 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 57.1% to 7.8 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 56.1% to 6.1 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 59.4% to 2.8 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 52.2% to 2.7 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 57.8% to 1.9 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
OCTOBER MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 3.0%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 2.3%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 1.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 3.4%
LAKEVIEW - Down 11.0%
NORTH CENTER - Down 3.6%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 2.2%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 2.9%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 11.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 21.6%
OCTOBER DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 6.5 % to 87 Days
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 9.3% to 82 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 36.4% to 150 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 1.4% to 71 days
LAKEVIEW - Up 3.4% to 61 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 21.7% to 47 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 7.7% to 70 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 14.3% to 80 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 18.5% to 101 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Down 25.4 to 138 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.