OCTOBER 2021 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
Overview - October brings a healthy real estate market to the North Side. The percent of increases and decreases, however, are less dramatic than a few months ago, when we were comparing current numbers against numbers from the height of the pandemic in 2020.
It should be noted that we are still comparing this year’s vaccine numbers to last year’s pre-vaccine numbers.
Inventory levels and Months Of Supply Of Inventory continued to drop to near record lows in September. Even the Near North Side which has been hit hardest by COVID, crime and social unrest has seen a rebound with sales and inventories favoring sellers.
Cumulative September Home Sales and Homes Under Contract both increased 13.8% and 15.5% respectively over 2020 in our four key neighborhoods on the North Side.
Traditionally sustained sales increases and inventory declines lead to large median price increases, but this has not been the case this year, as median prices posted a meager 2.8% increase for the second consecutive month.
Contemporary, turn key homes that are priced competitively, continue to sell quickly, while dated or over priced homes sit on the market and accrue market time. Sellers need to remember that in this market, their biggest potential expense is a price change.
Buyers and sellers are exposed to a tremendous amount of media information and misinformation about the real estate market. Much of this involves national or regional statistics that have little to do with individual neighborhoods and property types. Even Chicago statistics can be misleading as the city is so large, that individual neighborhood markets can vary considerably. It is critical to look at each neighborhood, property type and price point in order to get accurate market conditions.
Please see the analysis below for your neighborhood and see for yourself how it is performing.
SEPTEMBER HOME SALES
Year To Date - Up 52.0%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 13.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 39.9%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 23.6%
LAKEVIEW - Down 7.1%
NORTH CENTER - Down 5.2%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 17.2%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - up 5.5%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 30.0%
Over $2,000,000 - No Change
SEPTEMBER HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Up 49.5%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 15.5%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 17.8%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 27.2%
LAKEVIEW - Up 4.0%
NORTH CENTER - Up 21.3%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 21.7%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 2.2%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 7.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 21.7%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
SEPTEMBER HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Up 0.9%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 32.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 30.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 37.9%
LAKEVIEW - Down 33.2%
NORTH CENTER - Down 40.8%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 28.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 32.9%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 35.4%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 24.9%
SEPTEMBER MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 22.0% to 4.6 MSI
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Down 53.7% to 3.8 MSI
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 52.8% to 3.4 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 50.0% to 3.8 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 58.9% to 4.8 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 54.1% to 8.5 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 52.1% to 6.8 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 58.1% to 3.1 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 52.4% to 3.0 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 55.1% to 2.2 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
SEPTEMBER MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 5.8%
Month 2021 vs 2020 - Up 2.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 1.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 9.5%
LAKEVIEW - Up 2.9%
NORTH CENTER - Up 19.2%
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 2.5%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 1.0%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 1.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 9.1%
SEPTEMBER DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 8.4 % to 87 Days
Month 2021 vs 2020 - No Change at 66 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 26.8% to 123 days
LINCOLN PARK - Up 14.6% to 55 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 14.9% to 57 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 41.2% to 30 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 31.5% to 71 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 17.1% to 58 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 16.7% to 60 Days
Over $2,000,000 - No Change at 166 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.