NOVEMBER 2022 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
The 2022 real estate roller coaster continued in October. Home sales dropped for the eighth consecutive month when compared to 2021 in Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center.
It continues to be a tale of two markets in 2022.
2021 was a a significant rebound year from COVID and any comparison to 2022 will show significant declines.
2019 was the last “normal year” before COVID and 2022 comparisons will show a much more favorable market.
2022 YTD HOME SALES :
Up 22.5% vs 2019
Down 11.1% vs 2021
2022 YTD MEDIAN HOME PRICES :
Up 9.3% vs 2019
Up 3.8% vs 2021
2022 YTD INVENTORY :
Down 26.4% vs 2019
Down 30.4% vs 2021
2002 YTD MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY :
Down 46.9% vs 2019 to 5.4MSI
Down 36.9% vs 2021 to 2.9MSI
2022 YTD MARKET TIME
Down 26.7% vs 2019
Down 24.0% vs 2021
Rising mortgage rates and historically low inventory levels are the primary reasons that many buyers and sellers are staying on the sidelines waiting for some stability; however, rising taxes, crime rates and stock market woes are all having an effect on the market.
There are a significant amount of homes being sold, prices are up and market times are down. While it is still too early to see if the economy is going to make a “soft landing” or go into recession, there are real estate opportunities out there.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see for yourself how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends. Chicago is a big complicated city and so is the real estate market. There is no “one size fits all.” Buyers and sellers should look at market statistics for their individual neighborhood, property type and price point to get accurate data.
OCTOBER HOME SALES
Year To Date - Down 11.1%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 27.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 35.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 37.7%
LAKEVIEW - Down 14.0%
NORTH CENTER - Up 4.9%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 19.7%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 28.5%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 38.5%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 54.1%
OCTOBER HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Down 16.5%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 44.3%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 42.0%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 44.3%
LAKEVIEW - Down 48.9%
NORTH CENTER - Down 39.9%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 35.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 50.0%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 56.8%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 25.0%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
OCTOBER HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Down 30.2%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 24.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 19.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 31.0%
LAKEVIEW - Down 35.6%
NORTH CENTER - Up 2.6%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 36.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 16.2%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 18.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 7.4%
OCTOBER MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 36.9% to 2.9 MSI
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 11.4% to 3.1 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 19.3% to 2.5 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 8.8% to 3.1 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 8.2% to 4.5 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Up 22.2% to 9.9 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 17.2% to 5.3 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 17.2% to 2.4 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 21.4% to 2.2 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Up 30.0% to 2.6 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
OCTOBER MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 3.8%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 2.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 7.4%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 7.4%
LAKEVIEW - Down 11.4%
NORTH CENTER - Up 10.7%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 4.4%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 1.4%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 2.0%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 30.0%
OCTOBER DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 24.0% to 66 Days
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 11.1% to 72 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 23.1% to 113 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 31.9% to 51 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 12.9% to 54 days
NORTH CENTER - Up 65.9% to 73 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 10.1% to 62 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 3.8% to 83 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 36.4% to 63 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 62.3% to 224 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.