OCTOBER 2022 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
2022 September Home Sales dropped for the seventh consecutive month when compared to 2021 in Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center.
The 2022 numbers are disappointing compared to 2021. Historically low inventory levels and high fluctuating interest rates are the primary culprits, making more buyers and sellers wait on the sidelines for some stability.
There are, however, a significant amount of homes being sold, prices are up and market times are down.
As noted for the past few months, 2021 was an extraordinary rebound year from COVID. The record setting increases in 2021 have magnified the decreases in 2022 as you can see by the analysis below.
In order to provide a better frame of reference we also compared 2022 YTD numbers to 2019 which was the last “normal” year before COVID.
These results show a sharp contrast to 2022 vs 2021 report below.
HOME SALES - 2022 YTD home sales were up 31.5% over 2019
HOME PRICES - 2022 YTD median prices were up 14.8% over 2019
MARKET TIME - 2022 YTD average market time dropped 24.1% from 2019
INVENTORY & MSI - 2022 YTD inventory levels are down 18.2% from 2019 and MSI levels are down 42% from 2019 ( from 5.0MSI in 2019 to 2.9MSI in 2022).
As we have discussed previously, North Side real estate has been hit hard by a number of variables from COVID to rising interest rates, gas prices and crime to a dropping stock market. It is still too early to see if the economy is going to make a “soft landing” or go into recession.
This is a complicated market, but there is a significant amount of positives among all the negatives.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see for yourself how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends. Chicago is a big complicated city and so is the real estate market. There is no “one size fits all.” Buyers and sellers should look at market statistics for their individual neighborhood, property type and price point to get accurate data.
SEPTEMBER HOME SALES
Year To Date - Down 10.0%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 28.1%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 19.4%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 39.1%
LAKEVIEW - Down 27.9%
NORTH CENTER - Down 32.4%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 31.6%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 22.8%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 29.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 17.8%
SEPTEMBER HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date - Down 13.1%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 28.3%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 22.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 43.0%
LAKEVIEW - Down 27.4%
NORTH CENTER - Down 13.0%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 28.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 27.8%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 17.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 34.7%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
SEPTEMBER HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date - Down 31.6%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 26.0%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 20.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 32.4%
LAKEVIEW - Down 39.6%
NORTH CENTER - Down 8.7%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 34.6%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 23.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 22.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 1.6%
SEPTEMBER MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date - Down 38.3% to 2.9 MSI
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 17.9% to 3.2 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 20.0% to 2.8 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 20.5% to 3.1 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 20.4% to 4.3 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 44.9% to 9.8 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 22.2% to 5.6 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 21.9% to 2.5 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 29.0% to 2.2 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Up 12.5% to 2.7 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
SEPTEMBER MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date - Up 4.9%
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Up 12.5%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 2.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 20.2%
LAKEVIEW - Up 16.8%
NORTH CENTER - Up 12.6%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 0.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 3.6%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 5.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 8.8%
SEPTEMBER DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date - Down 24.1% to 66 Days
Month 2022 vs 2021 - Down 13.0% to 60 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 21.5% to 106 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 11.1% to 48 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 5.2% to 55 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 10.0 to 33 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 23.6% to 55 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 11.8% to 52 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 111.8% to 125 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 10.5% to 209 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, I would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.