OCTOBER 2023 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
September 2023 was the 19th consecutive month of year-over-year home sales decreases in Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center. We were beginning to see some positive signs in the market during the past few months, but September seemed to slide backwards.
HOME PRICES - One of the most suprising downturns in September was the 7.2% drop in median home prices. This was the first drop in home prices in the past five months and is most unusual in a market with historically low inventories.
HOME SALES - As stated above, we began to see home sales improve during the past two months only to slide 10.4% in September vs 2022 and that was down 28.1% to 2021. Lincoln Park (-28.8%) and North Center (-35.7%) were particularly hard hit during September which is traditionally a strong month for sales.
INTEREST RATES - After the shock of interest rates doubling over the past year, many buyers were beginning to settle into the reality of 6%. This was just in time for the Fed to raise rates well into the 7% range and as we move into 8% we are seeing these rates having a profound affect on the market. The multiple offer frenzy, brought on by historically low inventory levels, has noticibly slowed. Property showings and open house attendance appear to be down. While there are multiple factors having a negative effect on the market, rising interest rates seems to currently be the main culprit.
SUMMARY
With all of this less than positive news, it should be noted that two of the major real estate components are healthy.
1 - There is a healthy buyer pool ; however, many are sitting on the sidelines until inventory levels rise and interest rates stablize.
2 - Many sellers have built equity in their existing homes, but inventory levels and interest rates will have to be more favorable for them to sell and become buyers.
Please review the analysis below for your neighborhood and price point to see how they are performing. Each section below has a button that provides additional monthly, year to date and 10 year trends. Chicago is a big complicated city and so is the real estate market. There is no “one size fits all.” Buyers and sellers should look at market statistics for their individual neighborhood, property type and price point to get accurate data.
SEPTEMBER HOME SALES
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 27.0%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 10.2%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 5.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 28.8%
LAKEVIEW - Up 3.3%
NORTH CENTER - Down 35.7%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 0.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 10.6%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 28.6%
Over $2,000,000 - No Change
SEPTEMBER HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 22.9%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 5.0%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 12.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 22.1%
LAKEVIEW - Down 7.1%
NORTH CENTER - Down 20.0%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 1.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 14.0%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 24.6%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 66.7%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
SEPTEMBER HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 21.2%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 21.1%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 13.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 29.2%
LAKEVIEW - Down 35.5%
NORTH CENTER - Down 27.8%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 27.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 20.1%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 11.5%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 13.4%
SEPTEMBER MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Up 6.9% at 3.1 MSI
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 2.9% at 3.5 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 13.1% to 2.5 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 6.3% to 3.4 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 23.9% to 5.7 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 5.8% to 9.6 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 5.2% to 6.1 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Up 11.5 % to 2.9 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 8.7% to 2.1 MSI
NORTH CENTER - No Change at 2.8 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
SEPTEMBER MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 0.2%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 7.2%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 4.8%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 4.0%
LAKEVIEW - Down 19.2%
NORTH CENTER - Down 8.2%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Up 2.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 6.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 4.0%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 9.9%
SEPTEMBER DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Up 3.0% to 68 Days
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 1.6% to 62 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 10.1% to 120 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 22.9% to 37 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 30.9% to 38 days
NORTH CENTER - Up 67.7% to 31 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Up 7.5% to 57 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 Up 31.4% to 67 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 40.0% to 75 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Down 59.0% to 101 Days
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, we would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.