NOVEMBER 2023 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
Our monthly market analysis below details six real estate comparatives for the Near North Side, Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center, in addition to our comprehensive monthly summary.
OCTOBER HOME SALES
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 26.8%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 14.2%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 2.7%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 17.3%
LAKEVIEW - Down 25.0%
NORTH CENTER - Down 28.9%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 24.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 7.2%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 2.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 12.5%
OCTOBER HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 23.4%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 1.6%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 9.7%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 17.3%
LAKEVIEW - Up 4.0%
NORTH CENTER - Down 24.4%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 6.5%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 6.9%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 8.0%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 15.4%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
OCTOBER HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 21.6%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 16.2%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 8.0%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 24.1%
LAKEVIEW - Down 31.9%
NORTH CENTER - Down 20.0%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 16.2%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 20.5%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 9.7%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 15.7%
OCTOBER MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Up 3.5% at 2.9 MSI
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 6.0% at 3.5 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - No Change at 2.6 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 36.6% to 3.4 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 16.6% to 5.6 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 8.7% to 9.4 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 9.1% to 6.0 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Up 11.5 % to 2.9 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 8.7% to 2.1 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Up 7.4% to 2.9 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
OCTOBER MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 0.6%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 13.0%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 3.7%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 39.9%
LAKEVIEW - Up 12.7%
NORTH CENTER - Up 0.4%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Up 2.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 6.3%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 4.0%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 9.9%
OCTOBER DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Down 0.3% to 63 Days
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 27.7% to 52 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 19.6% to 90 days
LINCOLN PARK - Up 4.1% to 51 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 37.0% to 34 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 51.4% to 36 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 30.8 to 45 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 Down 32.5% to 56 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 38.0% to 87 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Down 59.1% to 85 Days
NOVEMBER SUMMARY
October 2023 was the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year home sales decreases in Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center. We were beginning to see some positive signs in the market during the past few months, but no definitive trends have emerged. As a result, we are seeing both positve and negative signs in November.
HOMES UNDER CONTRACT - While homes that went under contract in October 2023 dropped 1.6% vs 2022, this is a vast improvement over the past months where we were seeing double digit decreases. The Near North Side and Lakeview reported increases of 9.7% & 4.0%, while Lincoln Park and North Center continued to decline. When looking at Homes Under Contract by price point, many of the increases came from homes priced over $1,000,000.
HOME PRICES - had a dramatic 13.0% increase in October; however, most of that increase was fueled by a 39.9% rise in Lincoln Park. Lakeview and North Center home prices also rose, as did homes priced from $500,000 to $2,000,000. This was a welcome change from last months drop in home prices.
HOMES FOR SALE - Inventory levels continue to drop. In October 2023 we experienced a 16.2% drop vs 2022. Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center all experienced double digit decreases from 20% to 31.9%. Lack of inventory continues to be the main obstacle to a North Side real estate rebound.
INTEREST RATES - After the shock of interest rates doubling in a relatively short period of time, many buyers were beginning to settle into the reality of 6%. We have now moved past the 7% range and into 8%. These rates have had a profound affect on the market. The multiple offer frenzy brought on by historically low inventory levels has noticibly slowed. Property showings and open house attendance appear to be down.
Fortunately, the Fed did not raise rates this month; however, high interest rates are keeping many buyers and sellers from entering the market.
GOING FORWARD
With a mixed bag of positive and negative news, it should be noted that two of the major real estate components are healthy.
1 - There is a healthy buyer pool; however, many are sitting on the sidelines until inventory levels rise and interest rates stabilize.
2 - Many sellers have built equity in their existing homes, but inventory levels and interest rates will have to be more favorable for them to sell and become buyers.
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, we would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.