DECEMBER 2023 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
Our monthly market analysis below details six real estate comparatives for the Near North Side, Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center, in addition to our comprehensive monthly summary.
NOVEMBER HOME SALES
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 24.7%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 0.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 7.8%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 10.4%
LAKEVIEW - No Change
NORTH CENTER - Down 12.5%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 7.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 5.7%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - No Change
Over $2,000,000 - Up 33.3%
NOVEMBER HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 20.7%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 5.9%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 26.5%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 3.4%
LAKEVIEW - Down 14.8%
NORTH CENTER - Up 7.1%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Up 9.2%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 2.2%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 19.2%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 26.3%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
NOVEMBER HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 20.0%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 18.5%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 8.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 27.3%
LAKEVIEW - Down 37.0%
NORTH CENTER - Down 28.9%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 11.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 14.4%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 23.1%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 19.1%
NOVEMBER MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Up 10.3% at 3.2 MSI
Month 2023 vs 2022 - No Change at 3.0 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 8.3% to 2.2 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - No Change at 2.9 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 4.4% to 4.7 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 7.5% to 8.6 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 3.8% to 5.4 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Up 4.3 % to 2.4 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 15.0% to 1.7 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 8.0% to 2.3 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
NOVEMBER MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Up 1.1%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 8.8%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 0.8%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 5.8%
LAKEVIEW - Up 16.9%
NORTH CENTER - Up 13.1%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Up 14.9%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 9.1%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 3.4%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 7.5%
NOVEMBER DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Down 0.3% to 66 Days
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 4.4% to 65 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 6.0% to 94 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 34.1% to 54 days
LAKEVIEW - Up 15.7% to 59 days
NORTH CENTER - Up 15.5% to 54 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 20.55 to 54 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 Up 11.7% to 76 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 23.8%% to 80 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 123.0% to 87.0 Days
DECEMBER SUMMARY
Although November 2023 was the 21st consecutive month of year-over-year home sales decreases in Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center, the drop was less than 1%. It appears that the market may be leveling off, or hitting bottom (which ever way that you want to look at it). While the results vary among the four neighborhoods, we are beginning to see some positive signs; however, with inventory levels continuing to drop, a real estate rebound may be fragile.
HOMES UNDER CONTRACT - Homes that went under contract in November 2023 rose by 5.9% vs 2022, this is a vast improvement over the past months where we were seeing double digit decreases. The Near North Side and Lakeview reported increases of 26.6% & 7.1%, while Lincoln Park and North Center continued to decline. When looking at Homes Under Contract by price point, most of the increases came from homes priced under $1,000,000.
HOME PRICES - Reported a 8.8% increase in November for the second consecutive month. While Near North Side prices fell slightly by less than 1%, Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center all had increases, as did homes priced under $2,000,000.
INTEREST RATES & LOAN LIMITS - One of the key real estate villains for the past two years seems to have been arrested for the time being. Interest rates are beginning to show some stability and have dropped to under 7% for 30 year conventional loans. James Tausche of Draper & Kramer says that we may see rates drop as low as 5.5% by the second quarter of 2024. In addition, the maximum loan limit for conventional loans has been raised from $726,000 in 2022 to the current limit of $766,550 (The limits for other loans such as FHA have also been increased). These loan limit increases in addition to interest rate decreases are restoring some of the buying power that has been lost in the past 2 years. This will hopefully bring both buyers and sellers back in the market.
HOMES FOR SALE - Historically low inventory levels continue to hinder a real estate rebound. In November 2023, we experienced a 18.5% drop vs 2022. Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center all experienced double digit decreases from 27% to 37.%. Months of supply of inventory for these three neighborhoods range from 1.7MSI to 2.4MSI.
GOING FORWARD
Many sellers have built equity in their existing homes, but inventory levels and rising interest rates have kept them from selling their homes and becoming buyers. Hopefully, interest rate stability will get them off the sidelines, increasing inventory levels for what is already a healthy buyer pool.
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, we would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.